Cratus 2019 General Election Guide – Cambridgeshire

11.12.19

Seat Summary and Candidate List

Cambridge

2017 Result: Labour Majority of 12,661
EU Referendum: 73.77% Remain, Leave 26.23%
Incumbent: Daniel Zeichner (Labour)

Candidates: Russell Perrin (Conservative), Daniel Zeichner (Labour), Rod Cantrill (Liberal Democrats), Jeremy Caddick (Green), Peter Dawe (Brexit)

Cratus Prediction: Labour Hold. Mr Zeichner capitalised on the unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats in 2015 and subsequently increased his majority in 2017. The Liberal Democrats will undoubtedly have a strong showing but Labour seem to have tightened their grip on Cambridge.

Huntingdon

2017 Result: Conservative Majority of 14,475
EU Referendum: 53.49% Leave, 46.51% Remain
Incumbent: Jonathan Djanogly (Conservative)

Candidates: Jonathan Djanogly (Conservative), Samuel Sweek (Labour), Mark Argent (Liberal Democrats), Daniel Laycock (Green)

Cratus Prediction: Conservative Hold. The Conservatives command a strong majority and have held the seat since 1983. If the Conservatives were to lose here, it would probably signal a very poor night overall.

North East Cambridgeshire

2017 Result: Conservative Majority of 21,270
EU Referendum: 69.47% Leave, 30.65% Remain
Incumbent: Stephen Barclay (Conservative)

Candidates: Steve Barclay (Conservative), Diane Boyd (Labour), Rupert Moss-Eccardt (Liberal Democrats), Ruth Johnson (Green)

Cratus Prediction: Conservative Hold. Stephen Barclay is the incumbent Brexit Secretary and with such a large majority he should comfortably retain the seat.

North West Cambridgeshire

2017 Result: Conservative Majority of 18,008
EU Referendum: 56.93% Leave, 43.07% Remain
Incumbent: Shailesh Vara (Conservative)

Candidates: Shailesh Vara (Conservative), Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach (Labour), Bridget Smith (Liberal Democrats), Nicola Day (Green)

Cratus Prediction: Conservative Hold. Much like other seats in this region, the strong Leave vote as well as the historic Conservative success signals towards a rather straight-forward result for the Conservatives.

Peterborough

2017 Result: Labour Majority of 607
2019 By-election Result: Labour Majority of 683
EU Referendum: 61.31% Leave, 38.69% Remain
Incumbent: Lisa Forbes (Labour)

Candidates: Paul Bristow (Conservative), Lisa Forbes (Labour), Beki Sellick (Liberal Democrats), Joseph Wells (Green), Mike Greene (Brexit)

Cratus Prediction: Too close to call. Peterborough’s result has been on a knife edge in recent times, with the Brexit Party coming close to capturing the seat in the June by-election. This time around the Brexit Party are expected to lose a lot of the ground they gained, and Ms Forbes will be desperately hoping she can defend against the Tory onslaught.

South East Cambridgeshire

2017 Result: Conservative Majority of 16,158
EU Referendum: 54.7% Remain, 45.3% Leave
Incumbent: Lucy Frazer (Conservative)

Candidates: Lucy Frazer (Conservative), James Bull (Labour), Pippa Heylings (Liberal Democrats)

Cratus Prediction: Conservative Hold. Cratus predicts that Lucy Frazer will possibly have a decreased majority, but the Lib Dems and Labour will probably split the Remain vote, allowing Ms Frazer to retain her seat.

Key Seat Profile: South Cambridgeshire

2017 Result: Conservative Majority of 15,952
EU Referendum: 61.15% Remain, 38.49% Leave
Incumbent: Heidi Allen (Liberal Democrats)

Candidates: Anthony Browne (Conservative), Dan Greef (Labour), Ian Sollom (Liberal Democrats)

South Cambridgeshire’s former MP hit national headlines in February 2019 when she jumped ship from the Conservatives to join the newly formed Independent Group along with fellow Conservatives Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston as well as a handful of Labour MPs. Ms Allen stayed with the party as it changed into Change UK, and following its formation as a formal party, Ms Allen would be the interim leader. Rows broke out in the fledgling party during May’s European elections when she suggested that people ought to back the Liberal Democrats in certain areas.

In June 2019 she left Change UK to sit as an unaffiliated Independent before joining the Liberal Democrats in October. Ms Allen again featured across the news in November when she announced she would not be standing for re-election due to her exhaustion from politics and desire to maintain her personal life private.

The Conservatives chances at winning South Cambridgeshire are hampered in this Brexit-centred election due to it being a strongly Remain area.

The Liberal Democrats, although not having an overall strong campaign, will still remain hopeful that they can challenge here and possibly retain the seat- but in any case, it will be close.

Cratus Prediction: Liberal Democrats gain.