Devolution Diaries: Election Delays Winners and Losers

Local elections scheduled for May 2025 have been delayed for large parts of England as part of the effort to roll out fast-tracked devolution and Local Government Reorganisation.

Naturally, when you delay elections in specific geographies but not across the board, some parties are set to benefit and some will lose out. Following the Government’s announcement in February, the following Counties and Unitary Authorities won’t be going to the polls in May:

• Norfolk (84 councillors)
• Suffolk (75 councillors)
• Essex (75 councillors)
• Thurrock (49 councillors)
• East Sussex (50 councillors)
• West Sussex (70 councillors)
• Surrey (81 councillors)
• Hampshire (78 councillors)
• The Isle of Wight (39 councillors)

That’s 601 councillors who have their terms extended by one year to May 2026 – or longer. The Government is not legally permitted to delay the elections by more than a year at time. However, given Angela Rayner’s reasoning that elections should not be run for “bodies that will not exist”, it’s hard to see how an election in 2026 will be justified.

All bar two of the nine authorities with elections cancelled are Conservative-held. Elections for these posts were last held in 2021, at the height of the ‘vaccine bounce’ when the response to the pandemic was a boon to then-PM Boris Johnson’s popularity (remember him?)

The political environment has changed considerably since 2021. Back then, the Conservatives were preferred by 43% of the public at large, compared to Labour’s 33%, Reform’s 2% and the Lib Dems’ 9%. Safe to say, Starmer and Badenoch are longing for their parties to be that popular today.

Today, the Conservatives are down to 21% (-22), Labour are on 25% (-8), Reform on 27% (+25) and the Lib Dems on 12% (+3).[1] Those are dangerous numbers for both of the two major parties, and if you are a Conservative councillor up for re-election in May they make for grim reading.

Therefore, the main beneficiaries of the election delays at this point look to be the Conservatives. For many incumbent Conservative councillors, the May 2025 cycle is a tough one. Councillors in those areas above, particularly where there is a strong challenge, will have breathed a sigh of relief at the news of the delays.

For there to be a beneficiary, there of course has to be someone else who’s lost an opportunity. In some of the areas above, particularly in Essex, the Reform Party have lost out on an opportunity to prove that their extraordinary polling is really translating to votes at elections. However, that opportunity remains and in other areas we would expect a strong performance for the Reform Party.

On the night of the local elections, we won’t expect coverage from Nigel Farage at County Hall in Essex, instead keep your eye on Lincolnshire. This will be where one of the stories of the night get made, whether it’s a Reform triumph or a successful Conservative defence. The wider narrative will also be set by the inroads that Farage’s party can make across the rest of the country in these predominantly Conservative areas.

Also unhappy about the delay to elections is Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats. Davey had mentioned two county councils as good prospects in September in his speech to Liberal Democrat conference. One of these counties – Surrey – faces election delays for reorganisation. The other is Devon, which is on for elections and a key battleground against the Conservatives to secure the foundations for some newly-elected Lib Dem MPs.

However, Liberal Democrat frustration is strong elsewhere too, both in Hampshire and particularly in Sussex where the party has just increased its parliamentary representation from zero to five. Consequently, expectations for some significant gains – possibly even control – at the county level in West and East Sussex was strong. Those hopes are dashed for now, but their eyes will now be on a Lib Dem mayor in 2026.

Overall, it’s a mixed picture, but the narrative we’ll all read in the coverage of these local election results has shifted significantly before a single ballot has been cast. According to current polls, watch out for stories of a fierce fight between Reform and the Conservatives, with some isolated Liberal Democrat successes such as Devon or possibly Cornwall.

Finally, if you’re a Liberal Democrat or Reform Party councillor hoping for a leader’s visit, hop on the phones now… Their calendars just got that little bit easier with lots of targets now out of the game!

[1] Politico Poll of Polls POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland – POLITICO