Local Elections 25: Warwickshire in focus
Voters across Warwickshire will head to the polls on 1st May in what is likely to be the final round of elections to take place for the County Council in its current form. With the Government’s devolution and local government reform programme gathering pace, these elections mark the beginning of a political shift in how local services and decision-making is governed.
Warwickshire may have missed out on the Government’s Devolution Priority Programme, but in response to the Government’s call for interim proposals on local government reorganisation the County has tabled two options: A single Warwickshire-wide unitary and a two-unitary split along the lines of North Warwickshire, Nuneaton & Bedworth and Rugby Boroughs on the one hand and Warwick and Stratford Districts on the other.
The structure of local government isn’t the only thing susceptible to change in the near future, with the composition of the County Council likely to change significantly. The Conservatives currently have a large majority but given their recent losses in both local government and at last year’s General Election (at which they were reduced to one seat in Warwickshire), they may struggle to retain control of the Council. Having been elected into national Government in 2024, Labour may find it difficult to make significant gains. Instead of the two largest Parties, we expect to see some significant breakthroughs from three smaller parties.
The Liberal Democrats won the Stratford upon Avon Parliamentary constituency from the Conservatives at last year’s General Election and are well-positioned to make some significant gains at this round of elections in the divisions which make up the Stratford District.
Furthermore, we expect a strong showing from the Greens, who launched their national campaign for the local elections in Kenilworth earlier this year. With Warwick District Council already under their leadership, they are well placed to make gains across the county, including in Leamington Spa, Kenilworth and areas of Nuneaton such as Weddington. It will also be worth keeping a close eye on Reform, with a recent MRP poll placing them out in front as the party of choice in the West Midlands. Reform will be eyeing gains in the North of the county in Bedworth and Atherstone, but even if they fall short, their presence could still have an impact. By taking enough votes away from both the Conservatives and Labour, they may open the door for smaller parties to sneak through in some divisions.
The implications of these local elections could stretch from Warwickshire to Westminster. If the Conservatives perform as badly, or worse, than expected, the herd may move in on yet another party leader calling time on Badenoch’s 6-month tenure.
Cratus Group has supported several clients in navigating the political complexities of the planning system in Warwickshire and the wider Midlands. If you have a question about a site or project, please do get in touch.
