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The Labour Government in 2025 – a year to be bold

13.01.25 | Written by Jason Brock

It’s been commonly stated in recent weeks that the public reach a definite and final conclusion on a new Government after they’ve been in office for circa 18 months. The statistical evidence for this claim seems to be less robust than its circulation would suggest, but it makes for a good cautionary tale even if entirely apocryphal.

2025 will certainly be Labour’s best opportunity to be bold during this Parliament. The local elections this year are not exactly fertile ground for gains, barring a couple of county councils perhaps, but even there taking control is likely out of reach now. There will be a fight to hold onto two combined authority Mayoralties – the West of England alongside Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – and this will probably be written up as the key test for Keir Starmer in May. From 2026 onwards, however, the electoral tests become tougher and there are many more opportunities to lose councils and councillors and the pressure on the Government from within the party’s ranks will grow. Simply put, this is the year to do the hard things and, vitally, start to demonstrate the benefits of them to the public.

There’s already plenty of bold action that the Government would point to, but a lot of it won’t cut through with the general public even if it does lay the foundations of reform. The huge housebuilding agenda and the local government reorganisation will eventually be painful even if devolution is more straightforward, yet all are overdue. The incremental renationalisation of the railways is a strategic necessity, yet it won’t improve performance overnight and will put ministers more directly in the criticism firing line. The success, or otherwise, of Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, and her mission to encourage invest and stimulate economic growth, is unlikely to be fully apparent for another 12 to 24 months, and we can almost guarantee that some fiscal policy shifts will occur during that timescale.

In short, 2025 will be rough for the Prime Minister and his team. Unpopular decisions will be required, vocal interest groups will be challenged, and Labour’s opinion polling is unlikely to suddenly turn around. Donald Trump’s return to the US Presidency will generate some… erraticism… and cause disruption that is almost impossible to foresee. Delaying some local elections to facilitate devolution is pragmatically sensible but will become a public relations hostage to fortune when the ‘anti-establishment right’ begins to claim that Labour is running scared of the electorate.

But there’s no need for panic, and the Government need to hold their nerve if they want to eventually be heralded as delivering. Devolution will make it easier for local areas to start delivering against public transport objectives (while greater public ownership in rail and bus transport will placate the Parliamentary left), the NHS recovery and reform agenda will resonate with the public if it’s a success, investment in education will be popular with families, and a serious increase in housing delivery should be popular with a generation who feel locked out of home ownership and residential stability.  Vitally, the nation-wide applicability of these missions should keep Labour’s large majority together even as individual MPs with smaller majorities may face challenges in their constituencies over, say, housebuilding.

Better communication is needed from the front bench as to exactly what they’re seeking to achieve for ‘ordinary people’, but this really is a mission-led Government. The Prime Minister is clearly sticking to his course, and I don’t envisage that changing. Which is good, because an ambitious 2025 framed around the current agenda can set Labour on the way to being a generation-defining Government.

The Labour Government in 2025 – a year to be bold