Devolution Diaries: Why Essex’s Mayoral Election might decide the fate of the Conservative Party

Thursday,  7 May 2026 will see our first ever Mayor of Greater Essex elected, whose job will then be to start work setting up an office ready to take over responsibility for the powers set to be devolved from Whitehall. On the 17 July, the Government approved devolution work to proceed in Greater Essex, allowing moves towards establishing a Mayoral Combined County Authority (MCCA) to continue.

As an Essex resident, this is incredibly exciting and historic moment for our county! Cratus’ latest Devolution Diaries latest article asks the question, how the creation of this role will impact on the fortunes of the major political parties both locally and nationally.

Essex is historically a stronghold for the Conservative Party, with the Party winning all 18 Essex Parliamentary seats at the 2019 General Election. Within local government the Conservatives won 52 of 75 seats on Essex County Council in May 2021. Despite losing eight of these 18  Parliamentary seats last year, they retained 10 MPs across the County, which is still significant given the woes the party faced at the 2024 General Election.

Essex is home to not only the Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch’s North West Essex Constituency but also those of several senior Shadow Cabinet Members including Sir James Cleverly (Braintree), Dame Priti Patel (Witham), Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar), Richard Holden (Basildon and Billericay) and that of Opposition Chief Whip Rebecca Harris (Castle Point). With so many of the Party’s senior figures representing Essex constituencies, it is clear just what is at stake if the Conservatives lose the Greater Essex Mayoralty in 2026.

The Conservative Party recently selected Essex County Council’s Deputy Leader, Cllr Louise McKinlay, as their candidate for the Mayoral election, her campaign slogan was “Putting Essex First”, which is fitting as her Party are officially the first to have in place their candidate ahead of May 2026. Since first becoming elected to Brentwood Borough Council in 2004, Cllr McKinlay has held various senior positions in Planning and Highways before rising to become the Leader of Brentwood Borough Council between 2009 and 2019.

On paper, the Conservatives are in a strong position, identifying and unifying behind a candidate early on, and having a well-established network of local Conservative Associations with the majority of MPs and Councillors. Although I suspect there will be just one political party on the mind of every Conservative Association member in Essex this election…

July’s by-election result in St Martins Ward witnessed Reform UK gain another Councillor in Basildon. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of a Labour councillor and so perhaps the Conservatives weren’t hoping to win here (they subsequently polled third). However, Reform UK’s second victory in Basildon marked the party’s sixth gain this year in Essex. Reform UK have won a seat in Castle Point, one in Harlow, two in Thurrock and now two in Basildon – a noticeable spread across the county. It is also notable that Essex is the home of Nigel Farage’s Clacton constituency.

Although Labour has made significant inroads in Essex, winning Parliamentary seats in Thurrock, Harlow, Southend and Colchester at the 2024 General Election, the national unpopularity of the Labour Government makes a Labour victory in the Greater Essex Mayoral election a very tall order. The Liberal Democrats are also unlikely to be competitive across Essex as they have struggled to make an impression in the County in recent times aside from their heartland of Chelmsford.

All of this is to say that the Greater Essex Mayoral election in 2026 is certainly one to watch – and the consequences of a potential Conservative loss to Reform UK cannot be understated.

Cratus’ Devolution Diaries will continue to reflect and provide insights about Local Government Reorganisation and the Devolution agenda. In the meantime, get in touch if we can help you and your business navigate the changes.