It’s crunch time in Surrey
While much media attention ahead of May’s impending local elections centres on those elections which the Government has postponed, there is a danger that we lose sight of the great significance of the council elections which are actually still taking place.
Outside of London, nowhere are these council elections of greater importance than in Surrey where we will see all-out elections to two new unitary authorities – East and West Surrey – which will initially serve as shadow authorities before replacing the eleven district councils and Surrey County Council in April 2027. These unitary authorities will have powers ranging from Housing and Planning through to Adult Social Care and Education meaning the identity of those entrusted by Surrey’s voters to oversee the governance of these new councils is of critical importance to the whole population.
As you would expect, much of the focus of Council officers across Surrey is now on the transition to the two new unitary authorities and it is well worth developers carefully considering whether they would wish to have their planning application heard by the existing district council or the new unitary authority as 2026 progresses. Furthermore, the recent case of Buckinghamshire provides evidence that a new unitary authority may adopt or withdraw any late-stage draft Local Plans it inherits from moribund district councils so we would strongly advise that initial conversations take place with the district Planning officers even at this early stage in order to ensure that those promoting sites are prepared for all eventualities.
Although Surrey will not have an elected Mayor at this stage, it will be the first county to go down the path to unitary local government under the current national Labour administration. Indeed some cynics might point out that it is partly due to Labour’s inherent weakness across Surrey (even in the 2024 General Election landslide Surrey failed to elect a Labour MP) which makes it an acceptable frontrunner in the vanguard of Labour’s local government reorganisation as the Party will not incur substantial political damage should the process go less than smoothly.
As we have seen in other areas subject to local government reorganisation, there was intense debate in Surrey around the number of unitary authorities which would be created with the East/West division favoured by Surrey County Council ultimately being approved. Therefore, three months out from the elections, the main parties are in the process of selecting the candidates they hope will form the new administrations for these new authorities – 90 councillors across 45 wards in West Surrey and 72 councillors across 36 wards in East Surrey.
West Surrey includes the two largest settlements in Surrey – Guildford and Woking – and has a considerably larger population than the new East Surrey unitary. West Surrey includes the existing Guildford, Runnymede, Spelthorne Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking districts. While some concerns have been raised around the pairing of Spelthorne and Woking given both district councils’ recent well-documented financial troubles however these boundaries are now in agreed form. Seeing as the Liberal Democrats are involved in the leadership of all six districts (some as majority administrations and some as part of coalitions), we would make the Party strong favourites to emerge from the elections as the largest Party, very possibly winning an outright majority of seats. The scale of the likely Liberal Democrat victory in West Surrey appears largely dependent on whether there is a relatively even split in the Right of Centre vote between the Conservatives and Reform UK or whether one of these parties is dominant and is able to win a significant number of seats.
In contrast to West Surrey, the political composition of the new East Surrey unitary is more uncertain. The district councils which make up East Surrey (Elmbridge, Epsom & Ewell, Mole Valley, Reigate & Banstead and Tandridge) are home to a sizeable number of Residents Association councillors some of which have been rooted in the communities they serve for decades. Whether the electorate in East Surrey will continue to show loyalty to overtly localist candidates when electing a new Council which is spread across half of the county remains to be seen but given the deep networks of the Residents Association groups in districts such as Epsom & Ewell, Tandridge and Elmbridge in particular, it appears likely that a substantial cohort of Residents Association councillors will be returned for these areas as we have seen at recent Surrey County Council elections. Furthermore, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats both command strong support in certain parts of the East Surrey unitary but may have insufficient backing across the entire area to form a majority administration. Moreover, there is likely to be greater potential scope for Reform UK electoral wins in East Surrey than in the Western unitary while the Green Party will look to capitalise on their strong national opinion polling to consolidate their strong position in wards in the current Reigate & Banstead district.
The one election prediction that there is unanimity on at the present time is that Labour is braced for a miserable night in Surrey despite Sir Keir Starmer’s strong personal connections to the county.
As the identity of more candidates are known in the coming weeks and the pace of the campaign intensifies, Cratus Group will revisit the likely outcomes of these first ever Surrey unitary elections. However, in the meantime, if you wish to find out more or ask about the Surrey Development Forum which Cratus Group runs with Savills we’d be delighted to hear from you.
