Kent’s political possibilities
Kent was the scene of the biggest surprise at the 2025 local elections as Reform UK achieved a dramatic landslide victory at the elections to Kent County Council. The extent of Reform’s triumph was remarkable as they went from zero to 57 seats and reduced the previously dominant Conservative administration to a handful of members. Under its new leadership, Kent County Council became the ultimate test-case for Reform in local government with the establishment of a Department for Local Government Efficiency (which was modelled on Elon Musk’s similarly named DOGE initiative) created to find significant savings in the Council’s budget. Now as we rapidly approach the first anniversary of Reform’s victory in Kent, the situation is somewhat different. Ten of the 57 councillors elected for Reform to Kent County Council have left the Party and the Council leadership was required to increase taxation by 3.99 per cent for the upcoming financial year. Now the leadership of Kent County Council faces an additional challenge – the reorganisation of local government across the county with the new maps for the proposed unitary councils submitted for adjudication.
To this effect, it was unsurprising to see the County Council propose a single unitary authority for the entirety of Kent. This is an approach that has been seen elsewhere with County Councils typically arguing in favour of larger unitary areas. As Reform’s support in 2025 was relatively strong across the county geographically, there is politically little downside in following this approach. However, with Kent having a total population of around 2 million a single unitary would be more populous than the Government’s expectations of the correctly-sized unitary authorities. Furthermore, the fact that Surrey, which has a smaller population than Kent at 1.2 million, has been redrawn into two unitary authorities indicates that we can most likely expect more than a single Kent unitary.
As we have seen elsewhere, the District Councils across Kent have recommended a range of options which would see the creation of multiple unitary authorities. Five District Councils (Folkestone & Hythe, Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge & Malling and Tunbridge Wells) have endorsed a three unitary model which based on the Surrey precedent may represent a likely outcome. This would see the creation of a North Kent unitary consisting of Dartford, Gravesham, Medway and Swale which in the current political climate would seem to be potentially winnable for both Reform and Labour. Conversely, the proposed West Kent unitary (Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge & Malling and Tunbridge Wells) could be a closely run contest between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. The final proposed unitary under this model – East Kent (Ashford, Canterbury, Dover, Folkestone & Hythe and Thanet) – would appear to have potential not just for Reform but also for the Green Party who are already involved in the Council administrations at Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe.
Dover, Swale and Thanet Councils which all have Labour leaders have proposed an alternative map of four unitaries, two of which could be construed as being winnable for Labour in normal circumstances – North Kent (Dartford, Gravesham and Medway) and East Kent (Canterbury, Dover and Thanet) albeit in the current climate Reform is likely to be a major threat to Labour in both authorities. These proposals include the same proposed West Kent unitary authority as previously referenced which indicates that there is a degree of consensus across the political divide on this new authority. However, the three Labour-led councils deviate in calling for an additional Mid Kent unitary authority consisting of Swale, Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe which would again be promising territory for the Greens.
Kent’s only current unitary authority, Medway Council, has joined forces with Ashford and Canterbury to propose somewhat different four unitary map which would see existing District Council boundaries divided but would still see East, Mid, North and West Kent unitary councils created.
The final option proposed by Conservative-controlled Dartford and Labour-controlled Gravesham would see five unitary councils established. Under these proposals Medway, Sevenoaks and Swale Districts would be divided up. These proposals would see a North Kent unitary dominated by Dartford and Gravesham which may partly explain the attraction of this map to its supporters.
As with other counties, the politics of Kent reflect the fragmented divisions of our age with all five main parties currently running administrations in the county and with a smattering of Independents also involved in Ashford and Swale. Therefore, it is unsurprising to see a diverse range of proposals for the new unitary map which we can expect to come into effect by 2028. Based on what we have seen previously from the Government, it would not be surprising were a map of three or four unitary authorities to be ultimately selected and it is likely that there will be electoral opportunities for all five main parties in such a scenario.
