What does the Conservative Party have in store for 2025?

Polls suggest this Labour Government is one of the most unpopular Governments Britain has ever experienced. And that should mean it is all to play for, for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative Party. But Kemi and the Party have as many bullets to dodge as they do opportunities.

Local elections will be a key test, as the Conservatives made gains in the 2021 local elections taking several councils from no overall control to Conservative against a backdrop of Labour losing control of a total of eight councils and hundreds of councillors. In 2021, Reform only made two gains. This year, we will all see how Reform will fare when put to a test outside of the General Election. They have made an effort to democratise, turning Farage’s outfit into a political party that allows local branches to be established, which is necessary to enable them to fight local elections effectively.

But Farage is facing opposition from within, with the latest row over Tommy Robinson highlighting the struggles they will face on that end of the political spectrum. With Reform’s leader this week highlighting his similarities with Jeremy Corbyn, it begs the question what exactly electoral success means to him or what legacy he wishes to leave on British politics. While many are sceptical about how damaging recent interventions in internal battles within Reform really are, the truth is that the party still only employs 16 people and there is a continuous struggle to ensure a coherency of messaging – an issue every Party has to contend with, but unlike Reform, others have institutional memory and systems to allow for smoother running.

It’s not just at the ballot box the Conservatives are at risk from Reform and any surge in popularity. Thanks to the newly elected US President and Elon Musk, it isn’t Labour or the Conservatives dominating the news agenda. And with every input Elon has, comes more division and polarisation around the world.

The Conservatives must not fall into the trap of out-Reform-ing Reform. Yes, there are important issues being highlighted that for too long haven’t been dealt with adequately and the public are right to be outraged by the lack of action, particularly when it involves children. But it falls to the Conservatives to speak up on these issues without giving into populism or backing those who seek to harm our democracy or our politicians.

The Party must work out how to oppose with grace, how to put up a fight without harming those involved and how to be heard without stooping to Elon Musk’s level by inciting mass hysteria or sharing conspiracy theories.

The Conservative Party cannot win another General Election without the support of a coalition of voters, and so they cannot afford to do what I have done so far in this article by only focussing on Reform. There was always a concern since the 2019 election that the party lost focus on the more rural seats, which the Lib Dems and even Labour have since lapped up. It falls to Kemi to work out what the Conservative Party stands for, and I hope, work out how to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters, including the under 30’s.

All political parties have entered the new year with questions over how long their leadership will remain in place. Farage has his stateside frenemy to thank for this, the Prime Minister can look to his own ministers who have been briefing against him, and while the Conservative Party are rightly giving Kemi the space to grow, we all know that if the party doesn’t see the results required to even contemplate winning the next election, history tells us manoeuvres to oust her will begin.

So what does this year have in store for the Conservatives? We will need to begin to understand more about Kemi’s plans for renewal and the parties policies on housebuilding, education and Net Zero in particular. The party will be put to the test in local elections and any by elections. And no doubt will have to work out how to deal with the curve balls thrown over from the US.