Can Reform win Croydon?
Nigel Farage launched Reform UK’s London local election campaign in Croydon last weekend. With the slogan “Reform will fix it”, the party is seeking to reinforce its core message that London is “broken” and position itself as the only alternative capable of fixing it.
Farage clearly sees an opportunity. In his speech, Croydon was singled out alongside Bromley, Bexley and Havering as key boroughs where he believes it Reform UK is “seriously competitive”. This is partially supported by Cratus’ most recent bespoke polling across Bexley, Hillingdon, Bromley and Havering, which suggests Reform could make significant inroads – that report launches after Easter, CLICK HERE to make sure you don’t miss it. However, the data also indicates that rising vote share does not necessarily translate into overall control – it’s where the vote is that matters most.
Reform UK cannot afford complacency in Croydon despite riding high in the national polls uninterruptedly since May 2025. Anti-Reform tactical voting remains a significant barrier. Its impact has already been demonstrated in recent by-elections in Caerphilly and, most recently, in Gordon and Denton, where they failed to convert growing support into a win.
In Croydon, protests around the campaign launch demonstrate a degree of organised local opposition. The borough’s disadvantaged and ethnically diverse communities, alongside an increasing number of middle-income residents priced out of neighbouring areas, may prove receptive to an “anything but Reform” message. For Reform UK, converting visibility into meaningful support in Croydon ahead of May is crucial.
Croydon has long been a borough of contrasts. The north is more diverse, home to younger professionals and tends to favour Labour and, increasingly, the Greens, while the more suburban south, with a larger white and middle-and-working-class population, has traditionally leaned Conservative – and will be where Reform fancies it’s chances most.
The outcome in May will hinge on turnout among left-leaning voters, and how much the Greens nibble away at the Labour base, as well as how successfully Reform UK absorbs the Conservative vote in the south of the borough.
Questions around Reform UK’s governing credibility are also likely to come under scrutiny. Croydon’s financial crisis, with the council effectively declaring bankruptcy three times since 2020, creates an opening for challengers. However, Reform UK’s own track record in local government, especially in nearby Kent, includes a failure to deliver on pledges to cut council tax and a general sense of chaos with defections and sackings commonplace, which could provide ammunition for opponents. Farage will need to convince voters that Reform UK is more than a protest movement, and capable of delivering the competent governance that Croydon has long needed.
