Labour’s Leadership Election Ends on Monday. Or Does It?

The speed with which Labour has replaced its leader and, from Monday, the country’s Prime Minister leaves me torn between admiration and amusement.

Having served under three Conservative Prime Ministers and found myself in the middle of two leadership contests, I know just how bruising these moments can become. Compared with the Conservative psychodrama of recent years, Labour’s transition has looked remarkably disciplined from the outside.

But appearances can be deceptive.

I’m sure many Labour MPs, particularly those elected for the first time in the 2024 landslide, have found themselves in a position they never imagined. Like many of us on the Conservative benches during Boris Johnson’s final months, they have had to confront the uncomfortable reality of concluding that the Prime Minister who won them their seat could no longer continue.

The 2019 landslide Conservative victory did at least end the impasse Parliament faced over Brexit and we were grateful to Boris, but it didn’t undo his mistakes. Similarly, Keir Starmer’s victory was more than just winning an election; he took the Labour Party from record defeat to a huge majority, he took a Labour Party labelled institutionally antisemitic and turned it back into a mainstream party, and he turned their financial fortunes around too. There’s lots for Labour MPs to thank Keir for, but it doesn’t undo his mistakes.

I know what that feels like. Leadership contests are never just about replacing one person; they expose every ambition, every faction and every disagreement within a parliamentary party.
That is why the next few weeks will matter far more than the leadership election itself.

Every Cabinet reshuffle creates winners and losers. By keeping ministerial appointments under wraps until the final moment, the incoming leader reduces the opportunity for disappointed colleagues to brief against the incoming Prime Minister before he has even crossed the threshold of Number 10.

The real test begins after Monday.

Will MPs who considered backing other potential candidates or quietly hoped for a different direction accept the result and unite behind Andy Burnham? Or will they begin positioning themselves for the next contest before this one has truly ended?

Every parliamentary party has individuals who were never going to support the new leader. That is politics. The more important question is what everyone else does.

My experience taught me that the moment everyone agrees a Prime Minister must go, the unity ends. Immediately, colleagues become very open about who should replace them, and why. Some inevitably feel promises were made that were never delivered. Others decide they would have made a better choice themselves.

If Labour can avoid repeating those mistakes, Andy Burnham’s greatest victory may not be becoming Prime Minister, it may be proving that changing a leader does not have to mean beginning the countdown to the next leadership contest.